Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

Autor/inn/en	Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez
Titel	Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study
Quelle	In: Rehabilitation Research, Policy, and Education, 31 (2017) 3, S.158-173 (16 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	2168-6653
Schlagwörter	Rehabilitation; Models; Vocational Rehabilitation; Success; Racial Differences; Ethnic Groups; African Americans; Whites; American Indians; Alaska Natives; Asian Americans; Hawaiians; Pacific Islanders; Hispanic Americans; Records (Forms); Employment Level; Prediction; Accuracy; Simulation + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Analogiemodell; Berufliche Rehabilitation; Erfolg; Rassenunterschied; Ethnie; Afroamerikaner; White; Weißer; American Indian; Indianer; Inuit; Asian immigrant; United States; Asiatischer Einwanderer; USA; Hawaianer; Pacific Rim; Inhabitant; People; Pazifischer Raum; Bewohner; Hispanic; Hispanoamerikaner; Formularsammlung; Beschäftigungsgrad; Vorhersage; Simulation program; Simulationsprogramm
Abstract	Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts (i.e., Blacks or African Americans, non-Latino Whites, American Indians or Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians or other Pacific Islanders, and Latinos). Methods: Eleven years of Rehabilitation Services Administration (RSA)-911 case record data (fiscal year [FY] 2004 through 2014) on SVRA employment outcomes were extracted and entered into the ARIMA model and GM to test their predictive performance. Results: The GM was demonstrated to be superior to the ARIMA model in predictive accuracy performance. Remarkably, although the GM (1, 1) 3-year frequency curve projection simulation results (FY 2015-2017) showed a slight upward trajectory in the number of successfully rehabilitated Latinos compared to baseline FY 2014 actual numbers, more drastic downward trajectories were projected for Blacks or African Americans, non-Latino Whites, American Indians or Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Native Hawaiians or other Pacific Islanders. Conclusions: The GM represents a demonstrably capable and promising forecasting tool that could be useful to SVRA leaders, policy makers, advocates, and researchers in simulating predictions that inform future policy initiatives, influence strategic plan development, and help guide the state of the science on future research and development foci. Additional multiple comprehensive demonstration trials, nonetheless, are needed to either confirm or refute the GM's veracity in national and state predictive accuracy and curve fitting performance. (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	Springer Publishing Company. 11 West 42nd Street 15th Floor, New York, NY 10036. Tel: 877-687-7476; Tel: 212-431-4370; Fax: 212-941-7842; e-mail: subscriptions@springerpub.com; Web site: http://www.springerpub.com
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2020/1/01