Three Insights from a Bayesian Interpretation of the One-Sided "P" Value

Autor/inn/en	Marsman, Maarten; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
Titel	Three Insights from a Bayesian Interpretation of the One-Sided "P" Value
Quelle	In: Educational and Psychological Measurement, 77 (2017) 3, S.529-539 (11 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0013-1644
DOI	10.1177/0013164416669201
Schlagwörter	Bayesian Statistics; Statistical Inference; Probability; Statistical Analysis; Models; Statistical Bias; Effect Size + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Inferential statistics; Schließende Statistik; Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung; Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie; Statistische Analyse; Analogiemodell
Abstract	P values have been critiqued on several grounds but remain entrenched as the dominant inferential method in the empirical sciences. In this article, we elaborate on the fact that in many statistical models, the one-sided "P" value has a direct Bayesian interpretation as the approximate posterior mass for values lower than zero. The connection between the one-sided "P" value and posterior probability mass reveals three insights: (1) "P" values can be interpreted as Bayesian tests of direction, to be used only when the null hypothesis is known from the outset to be false; (2) as a measure of evidence, "P" values are biased against a point null hypothesis; and (3) with "N" fixed and effect size variable, there is an approximately linear relation between "P" values and Bayesian point null hypothesis tests. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2020/1/01