What's Next? Judging Sequences of Binary Events

Autor/inn/en	Oskarsson, An T.; Van Boven, Leaf; McClelland, Gary H.; Hastie, Reid
Titel	What's Next? Judging Sequences of Binary Events
Quelle	In: Psychological Bulletin, 135 (2009) 2, S.262-285 (24 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0033-2909
DOI	10.1037/a0014821
Schlagwörter	Markov Processes; Inferences; Predictor Variables; Statistical Analysis; Intention; Models + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Markowscher Prozess; Inference; Inferenz; Prädiktor; Statistische Analyse; Analogiemodell
Abstract	The authors review research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences involving binary events with a focus on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include random devices, births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others. After discussing existing theories of sequence judgments, the authors conclude that in many everyday settings people have naive complex models of the mechanisms they believe generate observed events, and they rely on these models for explanations, predictions, and other inferences about event sequences. The authors next introduce an explanation-based, mental models framework for describing people's beliefs about binary sequences, based on 4 perceived characteristics of the sequence generator: randomness, intentionality, control, and goal complexity. Furthermore, they propose a Markov process framework as a useful theoretical notation for the description of mental models and for the analysis of actual event sequences. (Contains 1 table, 4 figures and 5 footnotes.) (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10