Heuristics as Beliefs and as Behaviors: The Adaptiveness of the ''Hot Hand''

Autor/in	Burns, Bruce D.
Titel	Heuristics as Beliefs and as Behaviors: The Adaptiveness of the ''Hot Hand''
Quelle	In: Cognitive Psychology, 48 (2004) 3, S.295-331 (37 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0010-0285
DOI	10.1016/j.cogpsych.2003.07.003
Schlagwörter	Heuristics; Beliefs; Adjustment (to Environment); Markov Processes; Cues; Decision Making; Thinking Skills; Cognitive Psychology; Behavior; Simulation; Athletics + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Heuristik; Belief; Glaube; Markowscher Prozess; Stichwort; Decision-making; Entscheidungsfindung; Denkfähigkeit; Kognitive Psychologie; Simulation program; Simulationsprogramm; Leichtathletik
Abstract	Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the ''hot hand'' in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. (Author).
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Update	2017/4/10