How to Periodize a Violent Conflict: A Proposal Using the Case of Mexico

Autor/inn/en	Massa, Ricardo; Vilalta, Carlos; Fondevila, Gustavo
Titel	How to Periodize a Violent Conflict: A Proposal Using the Case of Mexico
Quelle	In: International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 26 (2023) 1, S.111-125 (15 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Massa, Ricardo) ORCID (Vilalta, Carlos) ORCID (Fondevila, Gustavo)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	1364-5579
DOI	10.1080/13645579.2022.2026131
Schlagwörter	Foreign Countries; Violence; Conflict; Definitions; Homicide; History; Research Methodology; Measurement Techniques; Statistical Analysis; Mexico; Latin America + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Ausland; Gewalt; Konflikt; Begriffsbestimmung; Mord; Geschichte; Geschichtsdarstellung; Research method; Forschungsmethode; Messtechnik; Statistische Analyse; Mexiko; Lateinamerika
Abstract	The definition of what constitutes a conflict, in terms of both time and events, has been consistently debated in the historical study of social phenomena. What has become increasingly clear, however, is that the methods used to define it are generally biased as they are highly dependent on the perceptions of the researchers who establish them. Using Mexico as a case study, we tested a data-driven method for periodizing long-term homicide trends. We found structural break analysis and Markov-switching regression modelling to be useful methods for periodizing long-term time series data of homicide rates, without an "a priori" or skewed definition. We also found that the current trend of increasing homicidal violence may prove difficult to reverse given that historical structural shifts in Mexican homicidal violence are unlikely events in the long term. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01