Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded under Declining Enrollment Times

Autor/inn/en	Wu, Shu-Jing; Chang, Dian-Fu; Hu, Hui
Titel	Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded under Declining Enrollment Times
Quelle	In: Higher Education Policy, 34 (2021) 4, S.747-770 (24 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Chang, Dian-Fu)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0952-8733
DOI	10.1057/s41307-019-00163-z
Schlagwörter	Correlation; Enrollment Trends; Declining Enrollment; Higher Education; Foreign Countries; Prediction; Models; Educational Change; Birth Rate; Trend Analysis; Strategic Planning; Educational Policy; Policy Formation; Taiwan + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Korrelation; Hochschulbildung; Hochschulsystem; Hochschulwesen; Ausland; Vorhersage; Analogiemodell; Bildungsreform; Trendanalyse; Strategy; Planning; Strategie; Planung; Politics of education; Bildungspolitik; Politische Betätigung
Abstract	Various perspectives on higher education have been addressed to support the arguments of expansion issues, while studies on prediction to tackle the phenomenon are very limited. In this study, we focus on series data for tackling the problem of over-expansion in higher education and explore how the decrease in birth rate and potential enrollment might challenge the oversupply system. Based on time-series data from the Ministry of Education and Ministry of the Interior in Taiwan, we conducted a cross-correlation function and ARIMA models to detect trends in student cohorts and enrollment. The results reveal that enrollment in the higher education system will drop significantly in the next 10 years. Based on the trajectory, this study suggests remodeling the higher education system to adapt to the trend of potential enrollment. This study suggests that cutting current capacity is the most likely strategy for the Ministry of Education. Related policy makers and institutional leaders should consider both local boundaries and the global context when reinventing the higher education system. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01