The Winning Probability of a Game and the Importance of Points in Tennis Matches

Autor/inn/en	Sim, Min Kyu; Choi, Dong Gu
Titel	The Winning Probability of a Game and the Importance of Points in Tennis Matches
Quelle	In: Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport, 91 (2020) 3, S.361-372 (12 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Zusatzinformation	ORCID (Sim, Min Kyu) ORCID (Choi, Dong Gu)
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0270-1367
DOI	10.1080/02701367.2019.1666203
Schlagwörter	Probability; Racquet Sports; Scores; Scoring; Markov Processes; Males; Coaching (Performance) + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung; Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie; Bewertung; Markowscher Prozess; Male; Männliches Geschlecht
Abstract	Purpose: This study builds a stochastic model of a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) that fits well with a dataset of professional playing records. Methods: The point-by-point dataset of Men's single matches played in the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) tour from 2011 to 2015 is analyzed. A long-debated assumption on the "iid"-ness in the point winning probability of the server is statistically tested. A DTMC model is then developed to analyze the dataset further. Results: The statistical test results indicate that the identicality of point winning probabilities is not a valid assumption. For example, the server's point winning probability from scores 40:0, 30:15, 15:30, and 0:40 are significantly different. On the other hand, the independence is a generally valid assumption except for 40:15 where who won the previous point influences the point winning probability. Game winning probabilities and the importance of each point in winning a game are analyzed using the DTMC model by court surfaces and player groups of the different levels of serve effectiveness. Conclusion: Extensive empirical validation concludes unsealed debates over the stochastic models for tennis. The presented results reveal interesting properties in professional tennis matches. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01