Investigating Possibilities of Predictive Mathematical Models to Identify At-Risk Students in the South African Higher Education Context

Autor/inn/en	Van Appel, Vaughan; Durandt, Rina
Titel	Investigating Possibilities of Predictive Mathematical Models to Identify At-Risk Students in the South African Higher Education Context
Quelle	In: Perspectives in Education, 37 (2019) 2, (15 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0258-2236
Schlagwörter	Foreign Countries; Mathematical Models; Prediction; At Risk Students; College Students; Predictor Variables; Statistics; South Africa + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Ausland; Mathematical model; Mathematisches Modell; Vorhersage; Collegestudent; Prädiktor; Statistik; Südafrika; Süd-Afrika; Republik Südafrika; Südafrikanische Republik
Abstract	This article reports on the results of an investigation of the predictive accuracy of five different mathematical models to identify at-risk students in a Business Statistics course. Low levels of students' success, especially in mathematics-related subjects such as statistics, are a salient problem in South Africa and other countries. Statistical knowledge is included in a variety of programmes offered by many faculties at tertiary level, and early prediction of at-risk students seems necessary to enhance academic success especially when dealing with large class groups. In this study, we used 395 Business Statistics students' grades from an academic semester at an urban university in South Africa to build a predictive model to identify at-risk students. Grounded on Meyer's model evaluation criteria and striving for a balance between accuracy and simplicity, two out of five models are identified as viable predictive models in identifying at-risk students by using a cross-validation test. The article shows the possibilities and limits in deriving information from a number of covariates. These results are interesting and have implications for educational practice in statistics courses. (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	University of the Free State Faculty of Education. P.O. Box 339, Bioemfontein 9300, South Africa. Tel: +27-51-401-2368; e-mail: PiE@ufs.ac.za; Web site: http://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/pie/index
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2020/1/01