Assessing the Accuracy of Elementary School Test Scores as Predictors of Students' High School Outcomes. Working Paper No. 235-0520

Autor/inn/en	Goldhaber, Dan; Wolff, Malcolm; Daly, Timothy
Institution	National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER) at American Institutes for Research
Titel	Assessing the Accuracy of Elementary School Test Scores as Predictors of Students' High School Outcomes. Working Paper No. 235-0520
Quelle	(2020), (76 Seiten) PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Quantitative Daten; Elementary School Students; Student Evaluation; Testing; Scores; Accuracy; Predictor Variables; High School Students; Outcomes of Education; Achievement Tests; North Carolina; Massachusetts; Washington + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Schulnote; Studentische Bewertung; Testdurchführung; Testen; Prädiktor; High school; High schools; Student; Students; Oberschule; Schüler; Schülerin; Studentin; Lernleistung; Schulerfolg; Achievement test; Achievement; Testing; Test; Tests; Leistungsbeurteilung; Leistungsüberprüfung; Leistung; Master-Studiengang
Abstract	Testing students and using test information to hold schools and, in some cases, teachers accountable for student achievement has arguably been the primary national strategy for school improvement over the past decade and a half. Tests are also intended to be used as a diagnostic tool to identify individual student needs, so that students can be set on a trajectory for long-term academic success. We use panel data from three states -- North Carolina, Massachusetts and Washington State -- to investigate how accurate early measures of achievement are in predicting later high school outcomes. We contribute to the literature in three distinct ways. First, the long panels we employ allow us to quantify the accuracy of models predicting how early (3rd and 4th grade) measures of student background and achievement predict several later schooling outcomes: 8th grade test achievement, high school course-taking, and high school graduation. Second, we test the extent to which predictions based on distinct segments of student data (e.g. grades 3 to 8, then 8 to 12) sacrifice forecast accuracy; this is of particular policy relevance for states or localities that do not yet have long administrative data panels. Finally, we test the degree to which the use of parameter estimates from models predicting schooling outcomes derived from one state diminish the accuracy of predicting outcomes in other states. (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research. American Institutes for Research, 1000 Thomas Jefferson Street NW, Washington, DC 20007. Tel: 202-403-5796; Fax: 202-403-6783; e-mail: info@caldercenter.org; Web site: https://caldercenter.org
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2024/1/01