Uncertainty about Future Income: Initial Beliefs and Resolution during College. NBER Working Paper No. 25485

Autor/inn/en	Gong, Yifan; Stinebrickner, Ralph; Stinebrickner, Todd R.
Institution	National Bureau of Economic Research
Titel	Uncertainty about Future Income: Initial Beliefs and Resolution during College. NBER Working Paper No. 25485
Quelle	(2019) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Monographie
DOI	10.3386/w25485
Schlagwörter	Income; College Students; Student Attitudes; Futures (of Society); Expectation; Education Work Relationship; Influences + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Einkommen; Collegestudent; Schülerverhalten; Future; Society; Zukunft; Expectancy; Erwartung; Influence; Einfluss; Einflussfaktor
Abstract	We use unique data from the Berea Panel Study to characterize how much earnings uncertainty is present for students at college entrance and how quickly this uncertainty is resolved. We characterize uncertainty using survey questions that elicit the entire distribution describing one's beliefs about future earnings. Taking advantage of the longitudinal nature of the expectations data, we find that roughly two-thirds of the income uncertainty present at the time of entrance remains at the end of college. Taking advantage of a variety of additional survey questions, we provide evidence about how the resolution of income uncertainty is influenced by factors such as college GPA and college major, and also examine why much income uncertainty remains unresolved at the end of college. This paper also contributes to a literature interested in understanding the relative importance of uncertainty and heterogeneity in determining observed earnings distributions. (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	National Bureau of Economic Research. 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398. Tel: 617-588-0343; Web site: http://www.nber.org
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2020/1/01