Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence.

Autor/inn/en	Feld, Jan; Sauermann, Jan; Grip, Andries de
Institution	Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
Titel	Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Zur Abschätzung des Zusammenhangs zwischen Können und Selbstüberschätzung.
Quelle	Bonn (2017), 25 S. PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (1); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (2); PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei (3) Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Reihe	IZA discussion paper. 10611
Beigaben	Illustrationen
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; Monographie
Schlagwörter	Kompetenz; Fertigkeit; Fremdeinschätzung; Intelligenz (Psy); Mentalität; Persönlichkeitsmerkmal; Persönlichkeitspsychologie; Selbstbild; Selbsteinschätzung; Fehler; Messung; Niedrig Qualifizierter; Qualifikation; Qualifikationsniveau; Hoch Qualifizierter; Student; Niederlande
Abstract	"The Dunning-Kruger effect states that low performers vastly overestimate their performance while high performers more accurately assess their performance. Researchers usually interpret this empirical pattern as evidence that the low skilled are vastly overconfident while the high skilled are more accurate in assessing their skill. However, measurement error alone can lead to a negative relationship between performance and overestimation, even if skill and overconfidence are unrelated. To clarify the role of measurement error, we restate the Dunning-Kruger effect in terms of skill and overconfidence. We show that we can correct for bias caused by measurement error with an instrumental variable approach that uses a second performance as instrument. We then estimate the Dunning-Kruger effect in the context of the exam grade predictions of economics students, using their grade point average as an instrument for their exam grade. Our results show that the unskilled are more overconfident than the skilled. However, as we predict in our methodological discussion, this relationship is significantly weaker than ordinary least squares estimates suggest." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2017/3