The Long and Short of It: Closing the Description-Experience "Gap" by Taking the Long-Run View

Autor/inn/en	Camilleri, Adrian R.; Newell, Ben R.
Titel	The Long and Short of It: Closing the Description-Experience "Gap" by Taking the Long-Run View
Quelle	In: Cognition, 126 (2013) 1, S.54-71 (18 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0010-0277
DOI	10.1016/j.cognition.2012.09.001
Schlagwörter	Probability; Sampling; Models; Outcomes of Education; Bias; Decision Making; Selection + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung; Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie; Analogiemodell; Lernleistung; Schulerfolg; Decision-making; Entscheidungsfindung; Auslese
Abstract	Previous research has shown that many choice biases are attenuated when short-run decisions are reframed to the long run. However, this literature has been limited to description-based choice tasks in which possible outcomes and their probabilities are explicitly specified. A recent literature has emerged showing that many core results found using the description paradigm do not generalize to experience-based choice tasks in which possible outcomes and their probabilities are learned from sequential sampling. In the current study, we investigated whether this description-experience choice gap occurs in the long run. We examined description- and experience-based preferences under two traditional short run framed choice tasks (single-play, repeated-play) and also a long-run frame (multi-play). We found a reduction in the size of the description-experience gap in the long-run frame, which was attributable to greater choice maximizing in the description format and reduced overweighting of rare events in the experience format. We interpret these results as a "broad bracketing" effect: the long-run mindset attenuates short-run biases such as loss aversion and reliance on small samples. (Contains 1 table and 4 figures.) (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10